About this site
The H&K Election Predictor
Since 2004, the H&K Election Predictor has popularized amateur punditry, engaged thousands, and brought polling results to life.
H&K’s Election Predictor uses a mathematical formula based on the concept of proportional shift to generate seat predictions.
Proportional shift generates new seat counts by taking each parties’ percentage of the 2008 popular vote and shifts those percentages based on inputted polling data. These new percentages are then compared to the 2008 election results and differences are allocated proportionally on a riding by riding basis.
For example, if a party’s popular vote across the country increases from 20% to 22% there will be a proportional increase of 10% in each riding for that party. Combining the shifts for all parties may result in a different party winning that seat.
Maps of all ridings can be found here on the Elections Canada site. No changes have occurred to riding names or boundaries since 2004, and proposed changes to 22 ridings included in government’s bill in November will not take effect until 2014.
Of course, no seat calculator will ever give a 100% accurate prediction. H&K’s Election Predictor is intended as a fun and informative tool to graphically view the impact of an election prediction and to bring public polling data to life.
The Election Predictor Blog
We’re taking a strictly non-partisan approach to discussing the election & digital communications. We’ll be examining more than polling trends with reviews of the campaign tools, methods of communication and the most effective tricks of the electioneering trade. We encourage you to join the conversations, share your favourite links, post your insights & enjoy the wild ride of the campaign.
This blog will be authored by Meghan Warby, a Public Affairs consultant & digital team member in our Toronto office.
Should you experience any technical difficulties, don’t hesitate to e-mail – meghan.warby@hillandknowlton.ca – anytime.